For Narva in Estonia and Rēzekne and Daugavpils in Latvia, the political calculus differs, though the overall conclusion remains the same. It would be politically intolerable for Russian war crimes to occur there again. Vilnius is Lithuania’s capital and leading population center, with about a quarter of the country’s population. Russia demonstrated in Ukraine that its occupation of foreign territory still brings with it looting, rape, deportations, murder, and cultural destruction-all on a massive scale. The first reason is political: it would be supremely politically difficult for the Baltic states to accept the loss of major population centers in the event of a Russian invasion, particularly after the modern, if vicarious, experience of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet there are two reasons to consider such an operational plan seriously. In case of war with Russia, NATO remains oriented toward a fighting return to the Baltic states rather than an initial defense. At the time of writing (prior to the Madrid Summit), this is not a probable Baltic defense plan despite likely increases to NATO forces in the Baltic states. This article therefore considers the plausibility of the urban defense of near-border Baltic cities in the context of Russian military and logistical performance in Ukraine. Unlike prior considerations of Baltic defense, we now have an ongoing example of a major Russian invasion and military performance from which to work. Beyond the attention paid to its war, Russia has tangentially also pushed Baltic defense back close to the center of NATO’s security agenda. On 24 February 2022, following a pattern it began in 2008 and continued in 2014, Russia proved once again that it was perfectly willing to start major war in Europe. (Screenshot from the Russian Ministry of Defence) Russian tanks on railway cars in Belarus shortly before the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
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